MBCC Portfolio Update post FOMC/Payrolls - (for paid subscribers only)...

This China/EM rally all started with Chinese Tech stocks, as shown above. As PBOC injected tons of liquidity into the last two months of 2022, it gave the impression “China was back and with full force” that forced alot of people to cover their shorts/start chasing the undervalued sector over the past 2 years. This filtered across in all asset classes that had a Chinese bias, Copper/CSI indices and EM - all pure Dollar bearish proxy trades. Yes the China reopening is the one thing that can move the needle for 2023, but it is not going to be in a straight line and it cannot do everything on its own when rest of world is going through a severe downturn.

What is really driving this rally? We discuss below and tell you what WILL happen next! Is it worth chasing the Nasdaq rally? How far can it go?

We then jump into our Commodity call based on physical movements, and update our portfolio with new trades and closing some old ones taking in profit.

We discuss refining margins and where they can go based on the EIA inventory trends we have seen over the past month. Remember it is not about where they are, it is the rate of change and where they are going. Of course, the sell side is late to the party and holding onto “stale” views until something changes, and then they rejig their calls after prices move by 30% or so.

Sign up, as we make that call ahead of it based on our cross asset macro indicators + physical market flows and more…