MBCC TH 15th March'23 - "Oil is now trading < $78/bbl. today, why? OPEC put and Fed put not active..."
Since May 2022, oil bulls are still holding onto their conviction of $100-$120/bbl. oil based on:
Less Russian supply (they pumped more, not less)
China reopening demand surge (never came)
Oil export bans (India / china making more $)
Lack of spare capacity argument (UAE are itching to pump more not less)
Not one has been working, yet they still hold on? Hope is not a strategy. These are great academic arguments, but trading is different as by the time academics adjust their numbers, prices have already moved 40% or so..too late…
Commodities need to be looked at BOTH in bottoms up inventory movements as well as top down/macro developments, physical players lose out on the latter and macro on the former - our cross asset models look at 25 different cross factors, and tell you what inventories WILL DO in 3 months, not what it has already done in the past.
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And our view on Oil Equities, Refiners, Oil, Gas, Copper, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin - as it is all one big macro trade..for now…