MBCC TH 18th January'23 - "Why is the S&P 500 holding onto 4000 so desperately and what can change it? It is all a timing game!"

So the market is hugging the 4000 mark desperately, but there is a reason why it is doing that or rather “needs” to until a certain event has passed. We discuss this very technical matter in our note today as most generalists or traders, especially those who look just at charts will lose out, as it is not about a trend, it is a whole lot more complicated. understanding this can also help you understand the true trend and breaks accordingly rather than be fooled by day on day flow.

The bulls and bears will fit a narrative as they see best. The former are convinced the Fed is close to ending its rate hiking cycle and so are front running them before the next QE cycle starts. The bears are convinced that earnings need to fall more yet stocks are rallying and so are confused and being forced to chase returns, especially in MEME stocks.

There is a pattern that is emerging here, when correlations move to 1 across risk assets and all our macro and technical indicators, we know something is not adding up. But therein lies the opportunity. We discuss what is the next move and when it can happen? It is a timing game!

We also take a look at the price of Oil, Brent price shown below:

Will it break higher from here or move back down? What is driving it and what is the tactical play here. We look at macro, $ flows, AND physical market movements as it all matters. All this and more in our note today!