MBCC TH 19th Apr'24 - "The market has finally cracked, the Jenga tower was about to collapse, the war may be the catalyst but our cross asset models have been pointing to stagflation for months!"

It does not matter what the catalyst is, the issue is to understand and keep in mind what extreme positioning is, what sentiment was, and what the fundamentals were pointing to also with - tail risks priced in.

Forgetting the war, which is discussed in detail below as we analyse Oil fundamentals and physical barrels, rather than emotions, it is about the Bond yields, Dollar, Fed being check mate and more. More important liquidity is the main driver of all things and q2 has seen things move in the opposite way vs. the massive pump Yellen/Fed did in Oct’23!