MBCC TH 31st January'23 - "What game is China playing, what does this mean for Commodities here? Is there a trade?"

China came out today reporting factory activity having returned to expansion in Jan, with official manufacturing PMI coming in at 50.1, vs prev. 47, expected 49.8. Non-manufacturing PMI for Jan comes in at 54.4, vs prev. 41.6, expected 52. What is going on? Is this the start of a proper China recovery or a one off?

We combine liquidity, offshore/onshore markets, and actual physical Commodity flows to see if all the moves add up, after all physical markets lead everything, even if with a small lag.

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