MBCC TH 8th Feb'24 - "Oil we dive into product margins and distillate, the real driver of Oil, NOT the war! What are the next key catalysts for the market and positioning?"

When most quote media or bloomberg headlines on Oil up or down on war with Gaza or US doing this in Syria or that….the same people have no clue what really drives Oil. It is a physical Commodity and that means loadings/physical barrels and refinery margins are key. When those turn, it all changes. But of course sell side and most will only chart chasing it AFTER the move quoting whatever narrative.

We look at our cross asset physical models to tell you what WILL happen, not what has!

Now that q423 earnings are out of the way…what do we look forward to in march? We have BTFP program ending then we have more Fed announcements..one thing is clear the higher the market goes and better productivity numbers we get, the Fed will NOT cut…unless ofcourse we see a massive fall in non farm payrolls as all these job cuts add up.

Who is right? How is market positioned…well a change is coming…either this is the start of the biggest bull market ever or we are doomed…..but something has got to give…cant keep pricing in cuts AND growth! Does not work that way…