MBCC TH Special Alert - US/Iran deal to be signed on 19th June, BUT the biggest change to the macro backdrop/positioning is now in play!"

EXPECTED TERMS OF US-IRAN PEACE DEAL:

1. Extends ceasefire between US and Iran for 60 days

2. Begins 60-day negotiation period for technical discussions around Iran’s nuclear program

3. Removes US Naval blockade and reopens Strait of Hormuz

4. US will commit to discuss sanctions relief with Iran

5. US will commit to discuss the release of frozen Iranian funds

6. Peace deal includes permanent end to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon

7. Final agreement to be signed on June 19th in Switzerland.

Iran has basically won the war (strategically) and as we wrote back in April, TRUMP was looking for a way to TACO as Iran was not Venezuela and it was the war of attrition. This war will be seen as one of the biggest failures in US political/military history as new 21st century warfare has changed the game and China has seen it too! Geopolitics aside, a lot changed during the last 3 months, supply chains/flows, and that will mean different outcome for assets going forward.

On Friday, MBCC wrote a strategic piece on asset allocation and the macro cross asset indicators and how they were flashing a theme the MARKET IS NOT SET UP FOR! What is it and how to play it?

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