MBCC Trading Highlights 24th October'22 - To pivot or not to pivot - market is desperately waiting but what can really happen?

The market rallied on Friday as there were whispers of the Fed/central banks doing some sort of coordinated efforts to stem the rally in the Dollar/decline in the Yen. But for now these are ALL hopes. Given positioning and year end rally hopes, everyone wants to play the “bounce”, the market can rally 200 points without even blinking. These are synonymous with bear markets, but is the pain truly over?

Keep powder dry and even if the market gets to 4000, it will still be in a downward trending channel. For us we ignore “technicals” but focus on when the fundamentals align with the technical signals. A lot needs to happen for it to be a sustainable rally.

All eyes on the Fed, can they pivot? We discuss this and more in today’s note. What is the trade here in Commodities, FX and Bonds?