MBCC Trading Highlights 25th October'22 - Look at the EU gas market, and now we discuss what can happen to the Oil market - refining margins, why are they so high and where can they go?

Brent Oil price has been holding around the $90/bbl. mark - big push from the Bulls talking about how Oil and Products are running out, inventories at 5 year lows. Bears keep talking about demand slowdown/macro.

EU gas market is now trading 100 eur/mwh DOWN From 350 eur/Mwh - just a small example when the entire world/analysts think we are running out, what hap[ens? No one looks at the other side. EU stocked > 90 % capacity 3 months before winter and now it’s warm. But also US LNG has maximised its $$ sending all that cargo to EU, to the detriment of Germany that coffed up a premo buying it all up. Now this winter is pretty much taken care of, as we have been saying, now that weakness with a warm start to winter is taking the entire curve down too!

Commodities are ALL a timing game, look at demand and supply! It is never just a one way trade up or down…

Now back to the Oil market. Gasoline and Distillate margins are roofing - is it demand or just refinery capacity. We look at where products are going, to whom, and who can replace them?

What is the trade here in US refiners and refining margins today?

All this and more - we tell you what will happen based on our forward looking cross asset models signals, not regurgitate what has!