MBCC Trading Highlights 5th December'22 - Is China really opening? What is going on in the Yuan?

Today we discuss Oil and what is going on in the Chinese Yuan and the Dollar. Positioned and shorts are being neutralised, but is this the start of a new trend or just a reversal of overbought positions in the Dollar? We take a look at our cross asset models to see what global demand is really looking like and which part of the cross asset structure shows value and which has more downside still.

After the Friday non farm payrolls, the S&P 500 is at key resistance here while the $VIX is at key support here. As we head into the Fed FOMC on the 14th and CPI on the 13th, what is in store for the markets?

We discuss Oil as back in October as OPEC+ announced cuts, we said all along that those cuts weer more about optics than anything since they were producing well below their quotas anyway. Low and behold, the data in November showed OPEC+ exports FLAT, which means that Russian exports more than offset any cut elsewhere, i.e. no one bothered to see what was happening to Russian Oil.

We discuss what demand looks like for Oil now int Q1 and the risk reward here.

Where should you be positioned?